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71.

Objectives

The predictive value of frailty and comorbidity, in addition to more readily available information, is not widely studied. We determined the incremental predictive value of frailty and comorbidity for mortality and institutionalization across both short and long prediction periods in persons with dementia.

Design

Longitudinal clinical cohort study with a follow-up of institutionalization and mortality occurrence across 7 years after baseline.

Setting and Participants

331 newly diagnosed dementia patients, originating from 3 Alzheimer centers (Amsterdam, Maastricht, and Nijmegen) in the Netherlands, contributed to the Clinical Course of Cognition and Comorbidity (4C) Study.

Measures

We measured comorbidity burden using the Cumulative Illness Rating Scale for Geriatrics (CIRS-G) and constructed a Frailty Index (FI) based on 35 items. Time-to-death and time-to-institutionalization from dementia diagnosis onward were verified through linkage to the Dutch population registry.

Results

After 7 years, 131 patients were institutionalized and 160 patients had died. Compared with a previously developed prediction model for survival in dementia, our Cox regression model showed a significant improvement in model concordance (U) after the addition of baseline CIRS-G or FI when examining mortality across 3 years (FI: U = 0.178, P = .005, CIRS-G: U = 0.180, P = .012), but not for mortality across 6 years (FI: U = 0.068, P = .176, CIRS-G: U = 0.084, P = .119). In a competing risk regression model for time-to-institutionalization, baseline CIRS-G and FI did not improve the prediction across any of the periods.

Conclusions

Characteristics such as frailty and comorbidity change over time and therefore their predictive value is likely maximized in the short term. These results call for a shift in our approach to prognostic modeling for chronic diseases, focusing on yearly predictions rather than a single prediction across multiple years. Our findings underline the importance of considering possible fluctuations in predictors over time by performing regular longitudinal assessments in future studies as well as in clinical practice.  相似文献   
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Ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) of the breast is a nonobligate precursor of invasive breast cancer, accounting for 20 % of screen-detected breast cancers. Little is known about the natural progression of DCIS because most patients undergo surgery upon diagnosis. Many DCIS patients are likely being overtreated, as it is believed that only around 50 % of DCIS will progress to invasive carcinoma. Robust prognostic markers for progression to invasive carcinoma are lacking. In the past, studies have investigated women who developed a recurrence after breast-conserving surgery (BCS) and compared them with those who did not. However, where there is no recurrence, the patient has probably been adequately treated. The present narrative review advocates a new research strategy, wherein only those patients with a recurrence are studied. Approximately half of the recurrences are invasive cancers, and half are DCIS. So-called “recurrences” are probably most often the result of residual disease. The new approach allows us to ask: why did some residual DCIS evolve to invasive cancers and others not? This novel strategy compares the group of patients that developed in situ recurrence with the group of patients that developed invasive recurrence after BCS. The differences between these groups could then be used to develop a robust risk stratification tool. This tool should estimate the risk of synchronous and metachronous invasive carcinoma when DCIS is diagnosed in a biopsy. Identification of DCIS patients at low risk for developing invasive carcinoma will individualize future therapy and prevent overtreatment.  相似文献   
74.
Journal of Neuro-Oncology - Primary central nervous system lymphoma (PCNSL) is a subtype of non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma that involves the brain, spinal cord, or leptomeninges, without evidence of...  相似文献   
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ObjectivesTo identify factors associated with 30-day all-cause readmission rates in surgical patients discharged to skilled nursing facilities (SNFs), and derive and validate a risk score.DesignRetrospective cohort.Setting and participantsPatients admitted to 1 tertiary hospital's surgical services between January 1, 2011, and December 31, 2014 and subsequently discharged to 110 SNFs within a 25-mile radius of the hospital. The first 2 years were used for the derivation set and the last 2 for validation.MethodsData were collected on 30-day all cause readmissions, patient demographics, procedure and surgical service, comorbidities, laboratory tests, and prior health care utilization. Multivariate regression was used to identify risk factors for readmission.ResultsDuring the study period, 2405 surgical patients were discharged to 110 SNFs, and 519 (21.6%) of these patients experienced readmission within 30 days. In a multivariable regression model, hospital length of stay [odds ratio (OR) per day: 1.03, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.02-1.04], number of hospitalizations in past year (OR 1.24 per hospitalization, 95% CI 1.18-1.31), nonelective surgery (OR 1.33, 95% CI 1.18-1.65), low-risk service (orthopedic/spine service) (OR 0.32, 95% CI 0.25-0.42), and intermediate-risk service (cardiothoracic surgery/urology/gynecology/ear, nose, throat) (OR 0.69, 95% CI 0.53-0.88) were associated with all-cause readmissions. The model had a C index of 0.71 in the validation set. Using the following risk score [0.8 × (hospital length of stay) + 7 × (number of hospitalizations in past year) +10 for nonelective surgery, +36 for high-risk surgery, and +20 for intermediate-risk surgery], a score of >40 identified patients at high risk of 30-day readmission (35.8% vs 12.6%, P < .001).Conclusions/ImplicationsAmong surgical patients discharged to an SNF, a simple risk score with 4 parameters can accurately predict the risk of 30-day readmission.  相似文献   
79.
Patients with melanoma brain metastases (MBM) still have a very poor prognosis. Several treatment modalities have been investigated in an attempt to improve the management of MBM. This review aimed to evaluate the impact of current treatments for MBM on patient- and tumor-related outcomes, and to provide treatment recommendations for this patient population. A literature search in the databases PubMed, Embase, Web of Science and Cochrane was conducted up to January 8, 2019. Original articles published since 2010 describing patient- and tumor-related outcomes of adult MBM patients treated with clearly defined systemic therapy were included. Information on basic trial demographics, treatment under investigation and outcomes (overall and progression-free survival, local and distant control and toxicity) were extracted. We identified 96 eligible articles, comprising 95 studies. A large variety of treatment options for MBM were investigated, either used alone or as combined modality therapy. Combined modality therapy was investigated in 71% of the studies and resulted in increased survival and better distant/local control than monotherapy, especially with targeted therapy or immunotherapy. However, neurotoxic side-effects also occurred more frequently. Timing appeared to be an important determinant, with the best results when radiotherapy was given before or during systemic therapy. Improved tumor control and prolonged survival can be achieved by combining radiotherapy with immunotherapy or targeted therapy. However, more randomized controlled trials or prospective studies are warranted to generate proper evidence that can be used to change the standard of care for patients with MBM.  相似文献   
80.
Multidrug resistance due to facilitated drug efflux mediated by ATP-binding cassette (ABC) transporters is a main cause for failure of cancer therapy. Genetic polymorphisms in ABC genes affect the disposition of chemotherapeutics and constitute important biomarkers for therapeutic response and toxicity. Here we correlated germline variability in ABC transporters with disease-specific survival (DSS) in 960 breast cancer (BRCA), 314 clear cell renal cell carcinoma and 325 hepatocellular carcinoma patients. We find that variant burden in ABCC1 is a strong predictor of DSS in BRCA patients, whereas candidate polymorphisms are not associated with DSS. This association is highly drug-specific for subgroups treated with the MRP1 substrates cyclophosphamide (log-rank p = 0.0011) and doxorubicin (log-rank p = 0.0088) independent of age and tumor stage, whereas no association was found in individuals treated with tamoxifen (log-rank p = 0.13). Structural mapping of significant variants revealed multiple variants at residues involved in protein stability, cofactor stabilization or substrate binding. Our results demonstrate that BRCA patients with high variant burden in ABCC1 are less prone to respond appropriately to pharmacological therapy with MRP1 substrates, thus incentivizing the consideration of genomic germline data for precision cancer medicine.  相似文献   
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